Blog

History does not repeat, but it does rhyme

Posted by on Oct 23, 2019 in Uncategorised | 0 comments

In 2000, one of the biggest discoveries in the oil sector was made, the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan. This discovery is considered the largest in over 30 years, as the field has estimated reserves of 13 billion barrels of oil. Following this discovery, several industry consultants believed the world would be flooded with cheap and plentiful oil from Kazakhstan, and OPEC members reduced CAPEX substantially in their fields. For sure, if a big producer were to step in and make prices go down, it makes no sense to invest to increase production. Unfortunately, this field only started to produce...

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Uranium Presentation Slides ausIMM

Posted by on Jun 14, 2019 in Uncategorised | 0 comments

Uranium 2019 Presentation...

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IMF

Posted by on Apr 29, 2019 in Uncategorised | 0 comments

The markets are back at or close to all-time highs and selecting investments at this point is becoming quite tricky, especially for a fundamentalist and contrarian investor, like me. Also, trying to follow the macro tourists into which sector is poised to go up can prove itself a very difficult task – or, as experience shows us, equivalent to flipping a coin. But I believe I have stumbled onto something that could be a real opportunity at the moment: IMF – and I am not talking about the one led by Christine Lagarde. IMF Bentham is a litigation funding...

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End of the Year Newsletter

Posted by on Jan 2, 2019 in Uncategorised | 0 comments

As usual, I would like to begin this letter thanking all our partners for the support and trust and our employees for the excellent year we had. Despite all the challenges in 2018 – perhaps the most complex year of the last 10 – L2 Capital has managed to grow and reach new heights. This year we started our first international fund, the L2 International Opportunities Fund. The goal, as the name itself already suggests, is to look for opportunities in the marketplace to deliver capital gains in the medium and long term. We always look for assets that...

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Fluxo de ouro para os Estados Unidos bate recorde

Posted by on Jul 27, 2016 in Dollar, Economy, Gold | 0 comments

Esse é realmente um acontecimento marcante e vale a pena ser mencionado. Além do mais, nenhum veículo de comunicação anunciou – por isso mesmo achamos importante fazê-lo. Para quem acompanha o mercado de ouro ou lê esse blog, o movimento do ouro é claro: Ocidente para Oriente, bem grosso modo, dos EUA para a China. Esse movimento, de certa forma, evitou q o ouro disparasse, já que temos um comprador grande e um vendedor grande. O dia que o vendedor diminuir ou parar de vender, esse mercado pode explodir. Agora, imagine se o maior vendedor também se tornar um...

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Australia Trading Journal – Part 6

Posted by on Jul 13, 2016 in Uncategorised | 0 comments

Since our last update, on June 5th, we kept our NCM position without selling calls, as we expected gold prices to go higher. Our expectations were confirmed and the metal price rose nearly 10% in less than a month in USD. NCM shares have risen by 28% since we bought them on May 09th. We decided to write more covered calls: Trade Sell (Call) Security: NCMGZ7 Price (AUD):1.11 Date: July 12th Strike (AUD): 26.50 Expiration date: July 28th In case of being exercised on this option, we expect to get a 36% return in less than 3 months. If...

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First semester 2016

Posted by on Jul 13, 2016 in Dollar, Economy, Gold, Silver | 0 comments

The first semester of 2016 was remarkably turbulent and we expect the volatility to stay high and possibly even increase by year’s end. The markets are ignoring the existing risks, simply because they are counting on price manipulation by the Central Banks (CB). Unfortunately, by holding stock prices up, the bureaucrat professors in charge of the CBs are postponing the inevitable and making the consequences even worse and perverse. The best recent example was the Brexit – it was a big surprise for the markets, made the pound sterling plunge and dragged the global stock indexes along with it....

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Bolha Chinesa

Posted by on Jul 8, 2015 in Uncategorised | 0 comments

Relatórios ainda mostram uma economia chinesa forte e pujante. Infelizmente, não é isso que enxergamos. Como já vimos mostrando desde 2013, a situação chinesa é bem diferente do que mostram as estatísticas e os dados do PIB. Como Li Keqiang, vice Premiê da China, admitiu em 2007, não devemos confiar nos dados da economia chinesa, com exceção dos de consumo de eletricidade, de volume de carga transportada por ferrovia e de empréstimos bancários. Então, vamos dar uma olhadinha nesses números, a começar pelo consumo de eletricidade: Não nos parece um país em franco crescimento. Se olharmos, então, para o...

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Prata e os mercados financeiros

Posted by on Jul 7, 2015 in Silver | 0 comments

O United States Mint (US Mint) acaba de anunciar que está sem estoque de prata. Isso no dia em que a prata despenca quase 5% (há poucos minutos, chegava a mais de 6%) no mercado financeiro. Há um descasamento enorme entre o mercado físico e o mercado financeiro nos metais preciosos. Talvez seja melhor perguntar ao Citi porque o preço está caindo quando a demanda está aumentando… Depois nos perguntam porque esses bancos precisam constantemente de planos de resgates (bailouts)… Continuamos recomendando aos nossos clientes exposição FÍSICA aos metais preciosos. Vale lembrar que papel é só uma promessa, o...

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Balança Comercial dos EUA

Posted by on Jul 7, 2015 in PIB | 0 comments

Aumenta o déficit comercial dos EUA em maio. As importações caíram 0.1%, enquanto as exportações caíram 0.8%, levando o déficit para US$41.8bilhões. Isso certamente não vai ajudar no cálculo do...

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