Fluxo de ouro para os Estados Unidos bate recorde

Esse é realmente um acontecimento marcante e vale a pena ser mencionado. Além do mais, nenhum veículo de comunicação anunciou – por isso mesmo achamos importante fazê-lo. Para quem acompanha o mercado de ouro ou lê esse blog, o movimento do ouro é claro: Ocidente para Oriente, bem grosso modo, dos EUA para a China. Esse movimento, de certa forma, evitou q o ouro disparasse, já que temos um comprador grande e um vendedor grande. O dia que o vendedor diminuir ou parar de vender, esse mercado pode explodir. Agora, imagine se o maior vendedor também se tornar um grande comprador. Praticamente não haverá limites para onde o ouro físico pode ir e certamente não existirá metal para muita gente que chegar tarde à festa. Esse ano está sendo cheio de surpresas (Brexit, “golpe” na Turquia, impeachment no Brasil, péssimos números vindos dos EUA, alavancagem ainda maior da China, estímulos sem limite na Europa e principalmente no Japão, Estado Islâmico, guerras na fronteira da Rússia, atentados terroristas semanais na Europa, tensão no mar do sula da China, etc), mas a maior de todas, para quem acompanha o mercado de ouro, é saber que os EUA finalmente se tornaram compradores. Foi o q aconteceu em maio – nós não sentimos isso aqui no Brasil porque o dólar caiu, ou seja, tivemos um bônus para poder comprar mais metal pelo mesmo preço. O chocante dessa notícia é que esse movimento de compra dos EUA não acontecia há décadas. A Suíça exportou para os EUA 50 vezes mais ouro em maio do que na média dos meses desde 2015: A pergunta que fica é a seguinte: por quê essa mudança e ainda tão brusca? Sinceramente, não sabemos. Mas acreditamos que algo grande pode estar por trás desse acontecimento. Vamos monitorar a situação com bastante atenção e reportar assim que tivermos mais notícias. Sabemos que grandes nomes estão comprando ouro e muito ouro: George Soros, Kyle Bass, Druckenmiller, Carl Icahn, etc. Será que mais americanos estão entrando nessa? Isso certamente seria um “game changer”. Como já dissemos várias vezes, é melhor estar anos adiantado do que 1 minuto...

read more

First semester 2016

The first semester of 2016 was remarkably turbulent and we expect the volatility to stay high and possibly even increase by year’s end. The markets are ignoring the existing risks, simply because they are counting on price manipulation by the Central Banks (CB). Unfortunately, by holding stock prices up, the bureaucrat professors in charge of the CBs are postponing the inevitable and making the consequences even worse and perverse. The best recent example was the Brexit – it was a big surprise for the markets, made the pound sterling plunge and dragged the global stock indexes along with it. How did the CBs respond to it? They promised what they always do: more liquidity, more bond purchases and interest rate cuts. Result: the indexes bounced back and completely ignored one of the most important events of the 21st century, as if it was nothing to worry about. We are going to list the most obvious potential problems that investors are ignoring – of course, these are the known ones. There could be a “black swan”, which would make the entire situation even worse. • Countries’ leverage Countries’ indebtedness has reached very high levels as measured by Debt-to-GDP, especially in ones whose economies are stagnated or recessive, such as Japan (229%), Italy (133%) and the Eurozone (90%). The very leader of this rank, Japan, uses 41% of its tax revenue just to serve its enormous debt (bear in mind that interest rates there are zerobound). • Elections in the USA The prognosis for the American future isn’t very exciting. Besides their innumerous problems that are always brought up in this blog (ZIRP, slow growth, high unemployment rate, high asset prices, etc.), this year is an election year and the candidates aren’t exactly the best ones in our opinion. • Zero and even negative interest rates in many parts of the world. The total amount of government debt yielding negative interest rates is increasing and had reached USD11.7 trillion last month, nearly twice as much as the amount in the beginning of the year. We consider the idea of investing in a bond, holding it until maturity with the certainty of getting less money than what was initially invested as inconceivable. • Frightening corporate leverage. The corporations took advantage of the extremely low interest rate to take on a lot of debt. Instead of investing in innovation, research, development and expansion, the executive officers decided to do buybacks, busting their own bonus, but clearly putting the company in jeopardy. As soon as the money authorities are obliged by the markets to increase interest rates, the companies’ capital structure will be compromised and they will no longer be competitive. On top of that, these companies will have to issue shares to serve the debt and correct operational weaknesses, at the very moment that investors are also selling their positions, sending the stock prices further down. • Bank crisis in Europe (mainly in Italy). Italy is responsible for less than 10% of Europe’s GDP, but it is responsible for almost 1/3 of the NPL’s of the entire Euro area. The vulnerability of the European banking system is quite evident. • A possible (and probable) debasement of the Chinese currency Big investors like George Soros and Kyle Bass have already pointed out what seems to be the trade of the year: the impossibility of China to keep the Yuan pegged to the USD. Last year, when China debased its currency by a little more than 2%, the markets melt down. That makes us wonder what would happen in case of a big devaluation. •...

read more

Jobs Report

Another US employment report was released last Friday (Good Friday), a Christian holiday. The BLS “had” to published this report just before the holidays, hoping that few people would see it. Figures for March were very bad, indicating the creation of only 126 jobs, against an average expectation of 248, with the lowest expectation of 200 thousand. So it was a very weak report as we expected, but a big surprise for the Market. The BLS also revised the numbers for the previous employment reports and reduced the number of jobs created by 69mil. According to the revised January report, 201,000 jobs were created instead of 239mil. According to the revised February report, there were only 264,000 jobs created, compared to the previously disclosed 295mil. They fixed the mistakes, which we have been pointing out for some time (see previous posts), when we said that the numbers appointed by the BLS were less than accurate. To make it even more interesting, the participation of Americans in the labor market reached a new record low since 1978, with more than 93 million Americans out of the labor market. This was a shock for those who expected that the Fed would raise interest rates from mid-2015. In her last speech, Janet Yellen, president of the FED, made it clear that she was keeping an eye on the labor market and any rise in interest rates would be dependent on this indicator. As we have been saying, there is no improvement in the US economy and the lack of QE will make it more visible. And, again, we need not to discuss the quality of jobs created – as usual, many part-time and low value jobs were added. It is noteworthy that the part-time jobs, responsible for much of the creation of jobs in recent months, work well in an uptrend (when two part-time employees are hired in place of a full-time employee), but are disadvantageous for the Government in the downtrend, with the opposite effect. Many companies laid off workers who worked full-time and hired new employees working part-time and this improved the numbers. When these companies begin to cut back, the number of layoffs will be scary. We believe that the US dollar will weaken further. It gained strength in recent months with the market expectation of an imminent rise in US interest rates. As we now know, this rate rise will not come anytime soon … Again, an exposure to precious metals work as an excellent hedge against a weak...

read more