Fluxo de ouro para os Estados Unidos bate recorde

Esse é realmente um acontecimento marcante e vale a pena ser mencionado. Além do mais, nenhum veículo de comunicação anunciou – por isso mesmo achamos importante fazê-lo. Para quem acompanha o mercado de ouro ou lê esse blog, o movimento do ouro é claro: Ocidente para Oriente, bem grosso modo, dos EUA para a China. Esse movimento, de certa forma, evitou q o ouro disparasse, já que temos um comprador grande e um vendedor grande. O dia que o vendedor diminuir ou parar de vender, esse mercado pode explodir. Agora, imagine se o maior vendedor também se tornar um grande comprador. Praticamente não haverá limites para onde o ouro físico pode ir e certamente não existirá metal para muita gente que chegar tarde à festa. Esse ano está sendo cheio de surpresas (Brexit, “golpe” na Turquia, impeachment no Brasil, péssimos números vindos dos EUA, alavancagem ainda maior da China, estímulos sem limite na Europa e principalmente no Japão, Estado Islâmico, guerras na fronteira da Rússia, atentados terroristas semanais na Europa, tensão no mar do sula da China, etc), mas a maior de todas, para quem acompanha o mercado de ouro, é saber que os EUA finalmente se tornaram compradores. Foi o q aconteceu em maio – nós não sentimos isso aqui no Brasil porque o dólar caiu, ou seja, tivemos um bônus para poder comprar mais metal pelo mesmo preço. O chocante dessa notícia é que esse movimento de compra dos EUA não acontecia há décadas. A Suíça exportou para os EUA 50 vezes mais ouro em maio do que na média dos meses desde 2015: A pergunta que fica é a seguinte: por quê essa mudança e ainda tão brusca? Sinceramente, não sabemos. Mas acreditamos que algo grande pode estar por trás desse acontecimento. Vamos monitorar a situação com bastante atenção e reportar assim que tivermos mais notícias. Sabemos que grandes nomes estão comprando ouro e muito ouro: George Soros, Kyle Bass, Druckenmiller, Carl Icahn, etc. Será que mais americanos estão entrando nessa? Isso certamente seria um “game changer”. Como já dissemos várias vezes, é melhor estar anos adiantado do que 1 minuto...

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First semester 2016

The first semester of 2016 was remarkably turbulent and we expect the volatility to stay high and possibly even increase by year’s end. The markets are ignoring the existing risks, simply because they are counting on price manipulation by the Central Banks (CB). Unfortunately, by holding stock prices up, the bureaucrat professors in charge of the CBs are postponing the inevitable and making the consequences even worse and perverse. The best recent example was the Brexit – it was a big surprise for the markets, made the pound sterling plunge and dragged the global stock indexes along with it. How did the CBs respond to it? They promised what they always do: more liquidity, more bond purchases and interest rate cuts. Result: the indexes bounced back and completely ignored one of the most important events of the 21st century, as if it was nothing to worry about. We are going to list the most obvious potential problems that investors are ignoring – of course, these are the known ones. There could be a “black swan”, which would make the entire situation even worse. • Countries’ leverage Countries’ indebtedness has reached very high levels as measured by Debt-to-GDP, especially in ones whose economies are stagnated or recessive, such as Japan (229%), Italy (133%) and the Eurozone (90%). The very leader of this rank, Japan, uses 41% of its tax revenue just to serve its enormous debt (bear in mind that interest rates there are zerobound). • Elections in the USA The prognosis for the American future isn’t very exciting. Besides their innumerous problems that are always brought up in this blog (ZIRP, slow growth, high unemployment rate, high asset prices, etc.), this year is an election year and the candidates aren’t exactly the best ones in our opinion. • Zero and even negative interest rates in many parts of the world. The total amount of government debt yielding negative interest rates is increasing and had reached USD11.7 trillion last month, nearly twice as much as the amount in the beginning of the year. We consider the idea of investing in a bond, holding it until maturity with the certainty of getting less money than what was initially invested as inconceivable. • Frightening corporate leverage. The corporations took advantage of the extremely low interest rate to take on a lot of debt. Instead of investing in innovation, research, development and expansion, the executive officers decided to do buybacks, busting their own bonus, but clearly putting the company in jeopardy. As soon as the money authorities are obliged by the markets to increase interest rates, the companies’ capital structure will be compromised and they will no longer be competitive. On top of that, these companies will have to issue shares to serve the debt and correct operational weaknesses, at the very moment that investors are also selling their positions, sending the stock prices further down. • Bank crisis in Europe (mainly in Italy). Italy is responsible for less than 10% of Europe’s GDP, but it is responsible for almost 1/3 of the NPL’s of the entire Euro area. The vulnerability of the European banking system is quite evident. • A possible (and probable) debasement of the Chinese currency Big investors like George Soros and Kyle Bass have already pointed out what seems to be the trade of the year: the impossibility of China to keep the Yuan pegged to the USD. Last year, when China debased its currency by a little more than 2%, the markets melt down. That makes us wonder what would happen in case of a big devaluation. •...

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Gold: Submitted by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners

The Beginning of the End Over the weekend, the lines in Greece stretched along the street. Around the corner. Down the block. Lines to get cash. Lines to buy gas. Lines of people eager to get their hands on something of value. Food. Fuel. Cash. Pity the poor guy who was last in line … … the poor taxi driver, for example, standing behind 300 other people, trying to get 200 lousy euros out of an ATM. Like a tragic nightclub customer … among the last to smell the smoke. By the time he headed for the exit, it was clogged with desperate people, all struggling to get through the same narrow door at the same time. Being the last in line usually means you have waited too long. Remember: When a bear attacks in the woods, you don’t have to be faster than the bear. You just have to be faster than at least one other hiker… Likewise, you don’t have to be the first one to get your money out of an ATM. You just want to be sure you get your money before the machine runs out of cash. And when a bear attacks Wall Street, you don’t have to be the first to sell. But you definitely don’t want to be the last. The Dow lost 350 points on Monday – its biggest point drop in two years. On Tuesday, Greece was expected to default on a $1.7-billion payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). And on the other side of the planet, analysts are looking at “the beginning of the end for Chinese stocks.” We doubt it is the beginning of the end. More likely, it is just the end of the beginning. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China cut rates to a record low, after stocks in Shanghai slipped 7% in a single day (the equivalent of about 1,300 points on the Dow). Analysts expected a big rally in response to the rate cut. Instead, the Shanghai Index plunged again on Monday, dropping 3%. Greece… China… said one commentator interviewed by Bloomberg: “You have a potentially very ugly situation this week.” Our guess: Stocks in the U.S. and China have topped out. Old-timer Richard Russell, who has been studying markets since 1958, agrees: I believe the top has appeared, like the proverbial thief in the night. The Dow has fallen below the 18,000-point level, and is now negative for the year. The Transports, which have led the way recently, are down triple digits for today and are only 89 points above the critical level of 8,000. The Nasdaq has closed under 5,000. At the market’s close, gold was up 5.3 at 1,179. When Gold Is Declared Illegal … But wait … What about silver and gold? As regular readers know, we recommend having some cash on hand in case of a monetary emergency. But a reader asks: In the same vein as your reader’s question as to what good cash is when it’s declared illegal, what good is gold when gold is declared illegal? First, precious metals aren’t illegal, so far. Second, making something illegal doesn’t necessarily make it unpopular. President Roosevelt banned gold in 1933. The feds wanted complete control of money. The dollar was backed by gold. So getting control of the dollar meant getting control of gold. Once the feds had the gold, they could devalue the dollar by resetting the dollar-gold price from $20 to $35. In an instant, people lost more than 40% of their wealth (as measured by gold). That ban lasted for 42 years. It ended in 1975,...

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Mercados Hoje

É, hoje o dia não começou bem para os mercados… Controle de capitais na Grécia (e uma possível saída do euro em breve), crash na China (apesar de cortes nas taxas de juros desse país) e um default de Porto Rico (estado americano). Já havíamos alertado para todos os eventos acima e isso não deve ser visto com surpresa, apesar da reação dos mercados. O ouro sobe, com uma alta na procura por hedge. Continuamos recomendando aos nossos clientes que tenham uma exposição aos metais preciosos. Como disse Ray Dalio recentemente, não há razão alguma para as pessoas não investirem em ouro, a não ser a falta de conhecimento histórico ou de como funciona a...

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Empiricus hoje – Ouro

Instiga-me fortemente, por exemplo, as visões do gestor Ray Dalio e do megainvestidor Marc Faber sobre ouro. Ambos têm sido bastante taxativos. O primeiro diz algo assim: “ora, meu caro, só há uma razão para você não ter algo de ouro: você não conhece ou não estudou história econômica. O metal precioso sempre foi, em maior ou menor grau, um tipo de moeda, servindo de reserva de valor, unidade de conta e meio de troca. Deve, portanto, fazer parte de todos os portfólios como ferramenta de diversificação. Você pode ter muito ou pouco, mas alguma coisa precisa ter. Eu, pessoalmente, tenho muito”. E o Marc Faber alerta de forma explícita: “2015, ou talvez 2016, pode ser o ano em que a credibilidade dos Bancos Centrais estará ferida de forma indelével, como reconciliação a toda a distorção que criaram nos mercados e nas economias desde 2009. Compre ouro como seguro contra um enfraquecimento das autoridades monetárias e sua concepção de moeda fiduciária.” A propósito, o ouro beneficia-se dos comentários pombásticos de Janet Yellen ontem e sobe 2% no mercado internacional hoje, para US$ 1.200/onça, patamar em que parece sentir-se mais...

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Ouro: o melhor investimento do ano

Matéria do Infomoney mostra que o ouro foi o segundo melhor investimento de maio, com alta de 4.3% e o melhor investimento desse ano, com alta de 20.2%. Dólar é o melhor investimento de maio com alta de quase 6% – InfoMoney Veja mais em: a-quase

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